A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
